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Meet Nova at the MIDD Summit in Boston, Nov 18–19Join our talk with GSK on day oneSee our talk

AHA Scientific Sessions 2026

Predicting Lp(a)HORIZON before the readout

Novartis presents the detailed Lp(a)HORIZON results on Saturday. On Sunday, we show how our mechanistic model anticipated them.November 6–9, 2026McCormick Place, Chicago, IL

Prediction on the record

A prediction time-stamped before the topline results

Lp(a)HORIZON is the first Phase III outcomes trial to test whether lowering lipoprotein(a) reduces cardiovascular events. Nova simulated it independently and deposited the prediction on Zenodo on June 2, 2026. Novartis announced on September 4, 2026 that the primary endpoint was not met, and AHA is where the detailed results are presented.

The topline release did not carry enough detail for a numerical comparison. The detailed results are the real test, and we will report that comparison whichever way it falls.

Readout first, then the prediction

Our presentation follows the primary clinical results by 31 hours. Times are Chicago time, with Paris alongside.

Clinical readout

Lp(a)HORIZON: primary clinical results

Saturday, November 7, 8:50 – 9:00 AM CST3:50 PM in Paris

The detailed Phase III results of pelacarsen in patients with elevated Lp(a) and established cardiovascular disease.

View in the AHA program
Clinical readout

Lp(a)HORIZON: extended analyses

Saturday, November 7, 9:00 – 9:10 AM CST4:00 PM in Paris

Further analyses of the trial, presented right after the primary results.

View in the AHA program
Nova presentation

Prospective In Silico Prediction of the Lp(a) HORIZON Trial Using a Mechanistic Atherosclerotic Cardiovascular Disease Model

Sunday, November 8, 3:50 – 4:00 PM CST10:50 PM in Paris

How Nova's mechanistic QSP model of atherosclerotic cardiovascular disease was used to predict the trial's outcome before any results were known.

View in the AHA program

The presenters

Emmanuelle Béchet, PhD

Emmanuelle Béchet, PhD

Senior modeler, Project Manager of the ASCVD project

Senior author of Nova's prospective Lp(a)HORIZON prediction, of the credibility assessment of its atherosclerosis model in npj Digital Medicine, and of the model's prospective CORALreef Lipids validation in Atherosclerosis.

Denis Angoulvant, MD, PhD

Professor of Cardiology, Dean of the Faculty of Medicine, University of Tours

Interventional cardiologist at Tours University Hospital and deputy director of the Inserm ISCHEMIA research unit, working on coronary artery disease and myocardial ischemia-reperfusion injury. First author of the In Silico trial emulation behind the SIRIUS program for inclisiran, and co-author of Nova's credibility assessment of its atherosclerosis model.

Visit the AHA Scientific Sessions 2026 site

Cannot make it to Chicago?

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